With senior Janata Dal-United (JD-U) chief Nitish Kumar strolling out of the ‘Mahagathbandhan’ and becoming a member of arms as soon as once more with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) forward of the upcoming basic election, political observers in Bihar underlined the great observe document of the twin pressure — two events going to polls collectively — in Assembly in addition to Lok Sabha elections.
Speaking within the context of the recent developments in Bihar, a political analyst stated that Bihar has at all times witnessed the dominance of three events — the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), JD-U and the BJP.
“It has been noticed that at any time when two political forces be a part of arms in Bihar, they simply win the election… be it Lok Sabha or Vidhan Sabha polls.
“In the early 1990s when RJD’s Lalu Prasad was a dominant political figure in Bihar with Muslim, Yadav and backward caste equations balanced in his favour, the BJP and George Fernandes-led Samata Party joined hands together to challenge Lalu Prasad, ” an analyst stated.
They have been profitable for the primary time in 2000 after they fashioned a “non-RJD government” within the state.
Nitish Kumar turned the chief minister of Bihar for the primary time with 154 MLAs.
However, after the RJD-led alliance quickly assembled with 159 MLAs, the Nitish Kumar-led authorities collapsed.
However, that experiment was price it for BJP and Samata Party with the JD-U coming to energy in 2005. Nitish Kumar once more turned the chief minister of Bihar.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, Nitish Kumar left the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) after the BJP named then Gujarat chief minister Narendra Modi because the prime ministerial candidate.
The JD-U then contested the polls alone in Bihar. The RJD additionally contested that election alone, and each these two events carried out miserably.
The RJD gained solely 4 seats and JD-U acquired two seats.
In that election, BJP gained 22 seats. Even the alliance companions of BJP like RLSP led by Upendra Kushwaha gained 3 seats and Ram Vilas Paswan led LJP 7 seats in Bihar.
However, the vote share of RJD and JD-U have been 20.10 and 15.80 per cent, respectively, and the BJP had 29.40 per cent.
This had really given hope to RJD and JD-U leaders that in the event that they joined arms collectively, they may defeat the BJP
The think-tank of each events believed that the BJP gained the competition attributable to division of votes.
Later, Lalu Prasad and Nitish Kumar joined arms within the 2015 meeting election and managed to cease BJP’s profitable spree.
In 2015 polls, RJD gained 80 seats with a vote share of 18.4 whereas the JD-U gained 71 seats with a vote share of 16.8.
The BJP gained 53 seats and the vote share was 24.4 per cent. In 2019 Lok Sabha election, the JD-U and BJP in Bihar contested collectively, and the twin pressure concept acquired additional solidified. The BJP gained 17 seats with vote share of 23.58 per cent, the JD-U bagged 16 seats with 21.81 per cent votes and LJP gained 6 seats with vote share of seven.86.
The RJD didn’t win a single seat in that election.
The twin forces’ dominance continued within the 2020 meeting election too when the BJP and JD-U pact continued.
In 2020 Bihar elections, BJP gained 74 seats with a vote share of 19.46 whereas the JD-U gained 43 seats and the vote share was 15.39.
The RJD had bagged 75 seats and its vote share was 23.11.
While analysing the development, it has been noticed that the share of votes of two main events have at all times greater than the “third party”.
Political analysts that preserving all these components in thoughts, the BJP and the JD-U should have joined arms forward of the 2024 Lok Sabha election to achieve an edge over RJD and different alliance companions of ‘Mahagathbandhan’.
This might be the rationale why the BJP opened its doorways to Nitish Kumar.
This time, the BJP has been eyeing no less than 16 to 17 seats. Besides, analysts consider the occasion has a trusted companion like Chirag Paswan who has appreciable affect on Dusadh neighborhood.
Notably, the BJP has aimed for all 40 Lok Sabha seats in Bihar and its possibilities look fairly brilliant now with Nitish Kumar stitching an alliance with the saffron camp, analysts say.